KILLER ASTEROID PROJECT

    Asteroid Apophis is a particularly interesting object in NEO Observations.  Below is a NASA/JPL orbit simulation of this near earth object that will come within the orbit of satellites that provide the earth with communications in 2029.  There is no chance it will impact the earth in 2029, however there is a slim possibility of an earth impact by this object in 2036.

     So why do astronomers care about the remote chance that an asteroid might someday hit the Earth? Think it could happen in your  lifetime? Just about a year ago, NEO 2004 MN4 posed a very serious  threat to life on Earth as we know it. First observations showed a good  chance of an actual impact. Let’s take a closer look at asteroid (99942)  Apophis (previously designated as 2004 MN4).
 

    On Friday, April 13th, 2029, the entire planet will hold its breath as  this 400 meter (1,300 feet) rocky asteroid narrowly misses the Earth. Observations made in December 2004 and January 2005 by professional and amateur astronomers have provided enough information to exclude the possibility of an actual impact in 2029. At the  end of January 2005, radar observations performed at the Arecibo radio  telescope have led to a substantial improvements in the asteroid orbital  path verifying that the asteroid will just narrowly miss the Earth.

    Check the evidence for yourself at the NASA Orbit Simulation Page.  Simply type in the object designation 2004 MN4 to run the java script.  You can run the program forward at high speed by selecting increments of months, but be sure to change to center the program on the Earth and set to daily motion by April 1st 2029.  Also zoom in and change the view to an overhead look and then set the script in motion!

    You can see the two objects are in apparent contact overlapping, even at high resolution.  Try changing your view of the orbital plane.   Observations are desparately needed of NEO’s because of the threat they carry for life on our planet.  NASA is looking for astronomers who have the ability to study these elusive objects that threaten our future.  As a student researcher, you too can make a real contribution to NASA.

Best estimates place the asteroid’s flyby distance at less than the distance to the moon  At the point of closest approach, the asteroid will be seen as a naked eye object at magnitude 3.3 traveling through the constellation Cancer at 42 degrees per hour.  

    “An Earth impact can now be ruled out,” read a statement by asteroid experts Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas as NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.  The key to accurate orbital elements is observations of an object over an extended portion of its path.  Yeoman went on to say that the minimum distance the asteroids would make would be only 10-12 Earth radii.  This translates into a distance of 40,000 to 48,000 miles.  The encounter will be so close that the Earth’s gravitational pull will bend the asteroid orbit adding additional uncertainty to any predicted observations beyond 2029.

    On the average, an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 passes within 2 lunar distances of Earth every 5 years.  In the past, most of had gone undetected since there were few survey program that were operating.  

    If you would like to write an article about your own observations or a class that has done NEO observations, be sure to contact us so we can put it in an upcoming issue.  We wish to thank NASA for much of the information and diagrams displayed in this newsletter. For more information about NEO’s,  check out NASA’s NEO Observation Program.

Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2004 MN4  Apophis

Commentary by NASA/JPL

Interesting sequence if Apophis passes through the "Keyhole"

Destruction of Apophis may be necessary in 2036

This Simulation is the Destruction of an Asteroid